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The silver lining here is that because the Republican supreme Court so vastly overplayed their hand here, they might inadvertantly have saved the nation from a fascist takeover.

Hear me out:

Joe Biden was previously doomed to be a 1-term president. The last election was an anti-Trump referendum, and it was a squeaker! Very little abundant base was actually excited be voting for Biden.

Heading into the next election we were ALWAYS going to have a mediocre Biden presidency, where none of our major crisis was solved, because Biden never aimed that high to begin with. It was never going to be enough to excite the base on the left.

And worse, with Republicans controlling the House, the second half of Biden’s term was doomed to be a do-little presidency. Going into the election we were going to be asked to vote for a man who hadn’t done much for the last two years, and who never even talked a good game about the radical change we need (universal healthcare, universal basic income, removing ALL student debt, etc).

Trump being back in the ballot helps a bit, but I’m not sure people are still feeling the immediacy and the urgency to keep him out of the oval office as they did at the end of this last term.

It was going to be another squeaker, and my money was on the Republicans because of their ability to ratfuck the vote with gerrymandering and voter suppression.

But NOW we have the supreme Court lighting a fire under the left. They struck down roe, and they struck down student loan forgiveness.

That may be enough to put us over the edge.

The version of this technology that I would love to see is for each individual to have a database of people they’ve met before, so if you meet them again, your smart glasses can prompt you with their name and notes about them.

Basically Google allows you to do this in a limited form with Google Photos, minus the ability to do live recognition

That might largely be a rephrasing of the same problem.

The main probably with scientific publishing is that our threshold for statistical significance is way too low.

If we allow the threshold to sit at a 1 percent chance that results of the study were random chance, it means that 1 percent of all publications at that level of certainly are going o mislead the public if the media reports on them. And with the volume of research published every day, that adds up to a LOT of misinformation.

It’s not even bad science, it’s bad reporting and widespread scientific illiteracy. But neither of those are going away.

Oh, it was nothing more than just showing off the technology, really. It wasn’t a committed bit.

I cloned my voice then left a voicemail that said something like: “hey buddy it’s me. My car broke down and I’m at… Actually I don’t know where I’m at. I walked to the gas station and borrowed this guy’s phone. He said he’ll give me a ride into to town if I can get him $50 bucks. Could you venmo it to him at @franks_diner? I’ll get you back as soon as I can find my phone. … By the way this is really me, definitely not a bot pretending to be me.”

This is nothing to get excited about. Like so many other things there will be constant innovations on both sides. It’s an arms race between the scammers and the scam detectors.

I cloned my own voice to prank a friend, and… Wow, it was a gut-dropping moment when I understood just how dangerous this tool is for precisely this type of scam.

It’s one thing to hear about it, but to actual experience it… Terrifying.

I use YouTube for tutorials, education, and entertainment all the time. And YouTube music is how I listen to all my music.

I’ve been paying for the YouTube premium version for my family since day one.

Recently they took away my grandfathered-in pricing. It really costs me a ton of money.

But I remember that I’m keeping ads off my screens, my parents’ screens, and my kids screens… And we all use YouTube music all the time… So…

Yeah, a lot of money, but honestly, probably the best subscription I have.

I could never go back to ads.

What a special piece of shit he is.

This is a bit like companies blocking Google from their websites.

You’re only hurting yourself.

Yup. This is why it is vital that we all get behind Universal Basic Income.

The jobs will leave and they won’t come back. UBI is inevitable, but if we don’t get there soon enough there will be years of suffering and poverty for hundreds of millions.

You’re wandering into one of the great questions of our age: what is intelligence? I don’t have a great answer. All I know is that gpt-4 can REASON, and does so better than the average human.

It’s gpt-4 self-aware? Yes. To an extent. It knows what it is, and can use that information in its reasoning. It knows it’s an LLM, but not which model.

Can it make judgement calls? Yes. Better than the average human.

Understand meaning? Absolutely. To a jaw-dropping extent.

Accuracy and correctness… Depends on the type of question.

What you need to understand is that gpt-4 isn’t a whole brain. Think of it as if we have managed to reproduce the language center of the brain. I believe this is mechanism for higher reasoning in the human brain.

But just as in humans with right-brain injuries, the language center is disconnected from reality at times.

So, when you think about gpt-4 as the most important, difficult to solve part of the brain, you start to understand that with some minimal supporting infrastructure, you now have something very similar to a complete brain.

You can use vector databases to give it long-term memory, and any kind of data retrieval used to augment it’s prompts improved accuracy and reduces hallucinations almost entirely.

With my very mediocre programming skills, I managed to build a system that is curious, has a long-term memory, and do a wide variety of tasks, enough to easily replace an entire customer service, tech support team, sales team, and marketing team.

That’s just ME, and working with the gpt-4 that’s available to the public with a bunch of guardrails on it. Today.

Imagine a less-restricted system, with infrastructure built by an experienced enterprise coding team, and with just one more generation of LLM improvement? That could wipe out half the white collar workforce.

If LLM improvement was only geometric, and not even exponential (as it clearly is), in 10 years these things will be smarter AND MORE CREATIVE than all humans.

The truth is that we’re going to be there in 5 years.

As I said, if you’re not scared shitless, you really don’t understand what gpt-4 can do.

It’s not “just another tool.”

It’s an intelligence.

This technology is more world-changing than computers, the Internet, or mobile technology. And it’s evolving faster than any of those things did.

You’ll see. Unfortunately.

I feel sorry for these folks. They have no idea what’s about to happen.

This is just the smallest tip of the iceberg.

I’ve been working with gpt-4 since the week it came out, and I guarantee you that even if it never became any more advanced, it could already put at least 30% of the white collar workforce out of business.

The only reason it hasn’t is because companies have barely started to comprehend what it can do.

Within 5 years the entire world will have been revolutionized by this technology. Jobs will evaporate faster than anyone is talking about.

If you’re very smart, and you begin to use gpt-4 to write the tools that will replace you, then you MIGHT have 10 good years left in this economy before humans are all but obsolete.

If you’re not staying up nights, scared shitless by what’s coming, it’s because you don’t really understand what gpt-4 can do.

You don’t need another example if you understand how many people are covered in that category.

Do you have any idea how many people have at least 5 minutes of audio on YouTube? (That’s all you need for voice cloning), tens of millions? Hundreds of millions?.. And how many of them have a Facebook, insta, tic Tok, or Twitter account? Virtually all of them.

If you wrote a script to do what I outlined, it would run FOREVER, because he users would be signing up and making videos faster than this script could ever hope to keep up.

Yes. I highly recommend your set one up today.

I’m sorry, but your assessment of how difficult that would be is WAAAAAY off.

Scammers are already doing stuff like this en masse with highly customized email scams.

The way this scam would work is to start with YouTubers, where grabbing the voice data is easy. Then you find their Facebook profile… Very easy, since people use the same usernames, or they go out of their way to link their profiles.

It’s a pretty easy step to make friend requests with those people. And then a very easy leap to find their relatives real names and towns through their Facebook connections.

Now you take their connections and towns and do reverse phone number lookups.

ALL of this can be automated. Every step.

The voice cloning and gpt-powered phone calls can be automated now, too.

The only reason this isn’t happening at scale is that scammers haven’t had enough time to adapt yet.

Pointing out the problem puts it into play for public debate, and there isn’t anything Republicans can say about the issue that doesn’t make them look bad (because on this issue they are unquestionably the villains).

Getting into details about the solution, however, offers the Republicans a line of attack and a way to muddy the waters. (“They want to pack the court!”).

Nothing is gained by having Biden get into the nitty-gritty, but something is lost.