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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: September 1st, 2023

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  • I’m not performing any comparison. The US Air Force destroyed the Chinese balloon, then analyzed it, then destroyed three non-suspicious balloons. I understand the reasons why the Chinese balloon was suspicious, and I understand the reasons the other three balloons were not. Also, one of those three balloons (presumably the one from a research institution, but I could not find any source linking identified balloons with statements made prior about them) was of a comparable size to the Chinese balloon. My point is simply that the US never takes down its own balloons, and much less in such a short time, right after analyzing a balloon that they found suspicious. If you have a better hypothesis, I’ll be glad to hear it.




  • The article repeatedly uses the adjectives “surveillance”, “spy” to refer to the balloon, even though there is no source confirming that was the device’s purpose, and notably it did not send any data home during its transit over the US. Forensic analysis only revealed meteorological equipment, antennas (which according to leaks were just regular communication antennas), basic steering devices and solar panels. Notably, no firmware analysis was mentioned, which would have easily confirmed its status as a surveillance balloon.

    The other three balloons downed a week later were confirmed not to be spy balloons; the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade claimed one, one research institution from the US (I don’t remember) claimed another. They were the kind of balloons that the Air Forces typically don’t take down, but apparently just decided to in a very short timeframe.

    Maybe they initially feared it was a spy balloon, discovered in a few days it wasn’t, then tried to alleviate the diplomatic hit by destroying every other “unidentified” balloon in their airspace, Chinese or not. And the PR mitigation for the local population is here: the balloon must have been for surveillance. This is the only hypothesis that makes sense to me (edit: feel free to provide others or point out flaws in my reasoning).