“I’m the nominee of the Democratic Party. No one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving," he said in a call to the broader campaign
“I’m the nominee of the Democratic Party. No one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving," he said in a call to the broader campaign
I mean, this is the kind of messaging we should expect from the office until the exact moment he flips. There isn’t anything really “new” in this BBC article, its mostly a rehash of several other articles and polls that have come out since last Thursday.
I’m still holding out for an announcement this evening/ tomorrow morning, but I am becoming less confident in that. I’m still confident that Biden isn’t going to be the nominee, but he’s creating a significant cost associated with him continuing to run as a lost-cause candidate. We need to move on and regroup, and we’re running out of time to do so.
At this point, Biden needs to basically recover 30 points in the polling to overcome the disadvantage we know he carries going into a general (we have seen how he underperforms his polling on election day; we also know that Trump typically outperforms his polling on election day). A thirty point swing at this point is a statistical impossibility, for those being practical about the matter. I can post the analysis again, but no swing of that magnitude has ever happened this close to election day. Ever. Based on his current polling, Biden has a less than 1% probability of winning, which is to say, basically impossible.
Even changing the nominee is risky at this point. There’s never been a party that has won when changing the nominee at the “last minute.”
That’s what’s scary here, replacing him could even be more disastrous than standing behind him. Both are bad choices. We’ve been fucked into a bad choice by a party that doesn’t give a shit about its own voters.
If only literally anybody in the party apparatus had listened to reason in four fucking years instead of being like “We can cart his corpse out until he croaks like we did with Dianne Feinstein.”
So is not replacing him, and the hand wringing around it being a problem is a significant contributor to this mess lasting as long as it has.
The right answer is to go to an open convention and duke it out the way its always been done in the past. At least bring back some semblance of democracy to the Democratic party; you’ll get a SHIT ton of coverage on the matter; it will turn into a real horse race and get people engaged, and then you’ll have a candidate is at least competitive, which Biden isnt.
You shouldnt be scared of replacing Biden. Thats like being scared of pulling over in a car with a flat tire.
The only people duking it out at the convention will be delegates. The party clearly thinks that they know better than the voters and they’re not gonna stop now.
Like the entire Democratic party keeps fucking up every chance they get because they’re so self assured and won’t listen to criticism. This has been the story of the last 25 fucking years.
Do you really expect me to believe they’ll turn around now and make a good choice? I don’t. Just like Hillary and Biden were bad choices, they’re just gonna choose another fucking bad choice.
I’m not fretting about it, I think it’s fucking stupid to leave the choice with the same idiots who fucked it up to begin with. They’re not gonna suddenly let the voters decide. They’re gonna let already determined party delegates decide. The same fucking “superdelegate” insiders who chose Hillary Fuckwit Clinton, the only person who was audacious enough to be able to lose to Donald Trump (and to this day walks around blaming everyone but herself). The same fuckwits who hid Biden’s clearly serious age issues, just somehow hoping it would work out. You expect those people to suddenly field a non-fucktarded-candidate?
Sure. And I agree. But I’m over it. Any one polling over 45%. I dont care any more. I just want someone who can beat Trump. Its obvious to everyone with eyes that isn’t Biden.
Thanks, we’re really all on the same side here. We’re all sick of this and just want it to be over and it to not be Trump. I’m with you on that, fucking ANYONE but him, please.
Well, you and I are.
There are plenty of people here, I suggest a majority, who have deluded themselves into thinking Biden is the only possible path to beating Trump, rather than a guaranteed L.
This cohort is the same cohort that has effectively put us in such a dramatically weak position to beat Trump. They are the real problem and if allowed to go unchecked, will lose this election for us.
https://xkcd.com/1122/
Get back to me when we switch candidates and still lose.
You really think when the party goes into back rooms and smokes cigars to choose the candidate that the Democratic voters are just going to fall in line and vote for them?
What if the choice the party chooses is Hillary Rodham Clinton?
Tell me, what candidate do the Democrats even have that would electrify their voter base.
I’m a Democrat and all I’ve got to say is “Fuck Newsom” and “I’d vote for Whitmer to stop Trump but that’s about it.”
The very idea that the party choosing the candidate after years of people being angry about the party fucking over Bernie Sanders on purpose will be somehow a popular pick is a big fucking joke. They argued in court that it was legal for them to choose their own candidate. Lots of people remember that and will be pissed off that the party is choosing for them again.
We’re well past the primaries. We have a month and a half until the convention. The two choices are the party picks the candidate, or they let the delegates choose at the convention. Both will be guaranteed shitshows, since none of the actual voters will get a choice in this matter.
Maybe you could run with this argument if the DNC hadn’t purposefully locked Bernie Sanders out as a candidate twice in a row. People remember, people won’t be happy about the bullshit choice of Biden being replace with another bullshit choice. We’re not gonna magic up some primaries in a month and a half.
The party literally chose to ignore this issue until after the primaries so voters wouldn’t have a choice. Fuck them for that.
They chose to deny that Biden was too old, and they purposefully waited until after the primaries to admit it to deny voters an actual choice because they think the party knows better. Evidence of the last 20 years is the party doesn’t know shit.
…but I guess if we just ignore the actual logistics and the recent past of the party itself, we can just play pretend that it will totally work out. /s
AOC would be electrifying. But you’ve pretty clearly already decided that it’s not possible to win with literally anyone except checks notes Joseph fucking Biden, a candidate that people didn’t even want to vote for last time.
Ah yes. This old tired canard.
Tell me you don’t understand XKCD without telling me you don’t understand XKCD.
Please explain it to me.
Joe Biden will lose. There is no more disastrous option. “Who knows what will happen” is at least in the grouping of “maybe they won’t lose”.
Fuck Nate Silver, some random Internet user figured it all out and didn’t even cite a source